Can $10,000 in NVIDIA Stock Become $1 Million by 2035? An In-Depth Analysis

Table of Contents

1. Key Highlights:
2. Introduction
3. The AI Imperium: NVIDIA's Unrivaled Market Power
4. Margin Resilience: NVIDIA's Profit Engine
5. Valuation: A Discounted AI Titan
6. Risks and Realism
7. Investment Thesis: Core Holding for the AI Decade
8. FAQ

Key Highlights:

• NVIDIA commands a staggering 92% market share in AI-driven data center GPUs, positioning it as a pivotal player in the AI landscape.
• The company reported a 93% year-over-year increase in data center revenue, reaching $35.6 billion in Q4 FY2025.
• Despite significant growth, NVIDIA’s forward P/E ratio of 25x remains lower than its competitors, suggesting potential for further appreciation.

Introduction

The prospect of transforming a $10,000 investment into $1 million by 2035 through NVIDIA stock is a tantalizing proposition for investors. With the rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence (AI) and the increasing demand for data center capabilities, NVIDIA's role as a cornerstone of the tech economy cannot be overstated. As we delve into the factors underpinning this ambitious investment hypothesis, it becomes clear that NVIDIA’s unparalleled market share, formidable revenue growth, and strategic positioning could make such returns achievable—though not without inherent risks.

The AI Imperium: NVIDIA's Unrivaled Market Power

NVIDIA has established itself as the dominant force in the AI hardware landscape, boasting an impressive 92% share of AI data center GPUs as of the first quarter of 2025. This commanding position is supported by a robust ecosystem comprising both superior hardware—such as its RTX and Blackwell architectures—and software solutions like CUDA and Omniverse.

In stark contrast, competitors like AMD, which holds only 4% of the market, and Huawei, with a mere 2%, struggle to keep pace. Their shortcomings stem from less developed software ecosystems and delayed product rollouts, which hinder their competitiveness in an increasingly AI-centric market.

NVIDIA’s substantial revenue from data centers, totaling $35.6 billion in Q4 FY2025—a remarkable 93% increase from the previous year—underscores the company's capability to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for AI workloads. As enterprises and government entities invest heavily in AI chips for both training and inference, NVIDIA stands to benefit significantly from the projected $1 trillion in global data center spending by 2028.

The introduction of NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture, which is currently sampling and expected to generate billions in revenue, exemplifies its strategic foresight. Designed to handle trillion-parameter models in real-time, Blackwell is poised to become essential for next-generation AI initiatives, such as Japan's ABCI 3.0 supercomputer.

Margin Resilience: NVIDIA's Profit Engine

A critical component of NVIDIA's success is its impressive data center profit margins, which have consistently remained above 65%. This resilience stands in stark contrast to competitors like AMD and Intel, the latter of which has seen a drastic decline in its market share. NVIDIA's ability to maintain high margins despite rising operational costs is a testament to its pricing power and market demand.

In Q1 2025, NVIDIA reported a 39.3% year-over-year revenue growth, reaffirming its capacity to monetize the soaring need for computational power driven by AI. While other players face stagnation or decline, NVIDIA’s steady growth trajectory positions it favorably within the tech sector.

Valuation: A Discounted AI Titan

Despite NVIDIA's remarkable growth and dominant market position, the company's valuation remains surprisingly modest. Trading at a forward P/E ratio of 25x, NVIDIA is more attractively priced compared to peers like Microsoft (29x) and Amazon (50x). This undervaluation raises eyebrows, especially in light of NVIDIA's pivotal role in the AI revolution.

Even after a staggering 78% revenue surge in FY2025, NVIDIA's price-to-sales ratio of 12x remains reasonable, given its competitive advantages and extensive AI-driven moat. The hypothesis of turning a $10,000 investment into $1 million requires an annualized return of approximately 25% over ten years. Although this figure may seem ambitious, NVIDIA's historical performance—marked by a 10-year CAGR of around 50% between 2015 and 2025—suggests that achieving even half of this growth rate could yield considerable returns.

Risks and Realism

While the prospect of a 100x return may excite investors, it is essential to temper expectations with a realistic assessment of the risks involved. Several factors could impede NVIDIA's growth trajectory:

1. China Market Headwinds: U.S. export restrictions have already cost NVIDIA approximately $4.5 billion in write-downs and lost revenue. While the development of a China-specific GPU based on the Blackwell architecture could mitigate some of these challenges, geopolitical risks remain a significant concern.
2. Competition's Evolution: The tech industry is characterized by rapid innovation, and emerging competitors like AMD with its MI300X and DeepSeek with its R1 chip pose credible threats to NVIDIA's market share and profit margins. These advancements could disrupt NVIDIA's established dominance if they prove effective at lowering inference costs.
3. Supply Chain Constraints: NVIDIA must navigate potential bottlenecks in the production capacity of its Blackwell architecture. Any disruptions in the supply chain could hinder its ability to meet growing demand, thereby impacting revenue growth.

Investment Thesis: Core Holding for the AI Decade

Despite the challenges, NVIDIA is positioned as a must-own stock for investors betting on AI's structural growth. Key catalysts that support this investment thesis include:

• Blackwell Adoption: Analysts project that the Blackwell architecture could drive over $10 billion in annual revenue by 2026 as demand for AI capabilities continues to rise.
• Data Center CapEx Boom: The anticipated $1 trillion investment in data centers is still in its infancy, offering NVIDIA significant opportunities for expansion and revenue generation.
• Software Monetization: NVIDIA's venture into AI-as-a-service offerings, such as AI Foundry, could generate over $2 billion in recurring revenue by 2026, further solidifying its revenue streams.

Actionable Take

Investors looking to capitalize on NVIDIA's potential should consider the following strategies:

• Buy on Dips: NVIDIA's stock often experiences corrections due to macroeconomic concerns or geopolitical tensions, presenting opportunities to acquire shares at more favorable prices.
• Hold for the Long Term: The cyclical nature of AI, reminiscent of the internet boom, suggests that NVIDIA could become the “Microsoft of AI,” making it a compelling long-term investment.

FAQ

What is NVIDIA's current market share in AI GPUs?

As of Q1 2025, NVIDIA holds a 92% market share in AI-driven data center GPUs.

How much revenue did NVIDIA generate in Q4 FY2025?

NVIDIA reported $35.6 billion in data center revenue for Q4 FY2025, marking a 93% increase year-over-year.

What are the projected global spending trends for data centers?

Global spending on data centers is forecasted to reach $1 trillion by 2028, driven largely by the demand for AI capabilities.

How does NVIDIA's valuation compare to its competitors?

NVIDIA trades at a forward P/E ratio of 25x, which is lower than that of competitors like Microsoft (29x) and Amazon (50x).

What are the major risks associated with investing in NVIDIA?

Key risks include geopolitical tensions, competitive pressures from emerging technologies, and potential supply chain constraints in producing new architectures.

Is it realistic to expect a $10,000 investment in NVIDIA to grow to $1 million by 2035?

While achieving a 100x return is ambitious, NVIDIA's strong market position and growth potential make it a compelling long-term investment, though investors should remain cognizant of the associated risks.